It’s easy to forget among the sea of polls and the intense focus on the presidential race that there are hundreds of other important races going on at the same time.
The media probably doesn’t want you to be thinking about those, so it keeps the spotlight on Hillary and Donald. But the battle for the House and the Senate is crucial to begin undoing the damage Obama has done of the the last 8 years.
In many ways the Senate races are inextricably tied to the presidential race as it will drive turnout, so the the better Trump does, the higher his tide will lift other shifts.
That said, new information is giving us a clearer picture of the Senate races, and the initial reports are not what media pundits expected.
The independent Quinnipiac University, in Pennsylvania, released a presidential poll that showed these results:
The closest race is in Pennsylvania, where Republican incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey has 46 percent, to Democratic challenger Katie McGinty’s 45 percent.
Florida – Republican incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio leads U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, his Democratic challenger, 50 – 43 percent;
North Carolina – Republican incumbent Sen. Richard Burr leads Democratic challenger Deborah Ross 49 – 43 percent;
Ohio – Republican incumbent Rob Portman buries former Gov. Ted Strickland, his Democratic challenger, 51 – 40 percent.
Trump is at 47 percent in the two-way race in Florida, tied with Hillary; Rubio is running three points better. Trump is at 43 percent in the two-way in Pennsylvania, five points behind Clinton; Toomey is also three points better. In North Carolina, Trump is four points behind at 43 percent in the two-way; Burr is six points(!) better. The only state where Trump leads is in Ohio, where his 46 percent mark is good for a one-point lead head to head. Portman is not only five points better, he’s dominating that race so thoroughly that his Democratic opponent, Ted Strickland, has begun canceling ad buys. Democrats are apparently giving up on the Senate race and reallocating their ad money elsewhere. In September. In Ohio!
It looks like Republicans will likely hold onto their majority in the upcoming senate races even though they may lose a few seats, bringing their numbers down to a 51% – 49% split between the GOP and the Democrats. This is good news but it might also give the DemocRats an impetus to push harder in the next go-round in a couple of years. If Trump pulls off a win in November it could be harder for him to get some of his policy changes past the Democrat blockade that will no doubt be coming after Jan. 20, 2017.
The big swing states, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, are where Trump is fighting close battles Hillary but the senatorial races are a different story. The Republicans are holding their own in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. If they can hold onto their seat in Missouri and take New Hampshire and Nevada, the GOP will be sitting in the catbird seat for a Trump administration!
Here’s some important implications of holding a majority Republican Senate:
A 51/49 Senate wouldn’t just mean Republican veto power over any Hillary Clinton executive appointments. It would give McConnell the votes needed to eliminate the filibuster altogether under President Trump if he wants to go that route. And he’ll face a lot of pressure, first and foremost from Trump himself once Democrats filibuster a few of his proposals, to do so.
The fact that Trump has had success courting the minority African-American and Latino voters gives him somewhat of a leg up and a fighting chance in states where their support would have traditionally gone to the Democrat. Also, it seems that Hillary may have contributed to disenfranchising some of her minority friends who are beginning to see through her rhetoric into the soul of an unscrupulous enemy.
Source: Hot Air