For everyone who’s sick of polls, here’s a tried and true way to forecast the winner of the presidential election: The stock market.
This particular method of analysis comes with the added bonus that it is almost always right with an 86% accuracy since World War II.
For most pollsters, their result this year is confounding, and America is taking notice.
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, says the market’s decline this fall has been a bad omen for the incumbent party and Hillary Clinton, who still holds a six point national lead in a new poll. The S&P 500 is down 2.2 percent since its close of 2,173 on July 29, a Friday and the last trading day of July.
“Going back to World War II, the S&P 500 performance between July 31 and Oct. 31 has accurately predicted a challenger victory 86 percent of the time when the stock market performance has been negative,” he said.
Stovall explained that the current negative stock market performance may reflect worry by investors about what a Hillary Clinton victory would mean for the economy.
Another expert source agreed, telling CNBC that, “the historic guide of market performance prior to the election is not pointing to a win by the Democrat.”
The market hasn’t witnessed the kind of rally that is usually seen the week before a U.S. presidential election.
Quite the opposite — which means even more bad news for Hillary Clinton.