As the 2016 election winds down to its final few hours, a swath of new polls tell very different stories.
There is plenty in them for both sides to hang their hopes on. However, the actual numbers often tell a different story than the reality that plays out on election day…just ask Mitt Romney.
Despite several polls showing Hillary Clinton leading nationally and in several key states by a small amount, there is another essential data point that many pollsters will readily admit represents a significant X-factor that bodes very well for Donald Trump, as The Week reports…
If Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton’s last ditch campaign stops in swing states like Florida and Ohio seem like an exercise in futility this close to Election Day, think again. Compared to 2012, the percentage of voters who apparently intend to make a game-day decision is remarkably high.
In fact, about “13 percent of the electorate says it’s undecided or will vote for a third-party candidate, as compared with just 3 percent in the final 2012 polling average,” as Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight explains.
Why is this important?
Historically, from the presidential race to the race for your local school board, late deciders tend to break overwhelmingly for the challenger. Given the massive number of undecideds still in play, Donald Trump can expect a significant boost on election day relative to the polls.
If a poll shows Clinton 42 to Trump 40 with Johnson and Stein pulling 5 percent between them, that leaves 13 percent undecided. But “Undecided” won’t be on the ballot.
If those voters break 2 to 1 for the challenger as they usually do, Donald Trump is the next president!
Source: The Week