According to the recent polls, this presidential election is still anybody’s race to win as far as Democrat, Hillary Clinton and Republican, Donald Trump are concerned. The two candidates have been trading the number one spot up till now if we trust the poll numbers.
Predicting the winner in a presidential election is proving to be as difficult as picking the winner of a horse race by throwing darts at a board. Now a new method for determining who the next president will be has been revealed by Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University who has been predicting winners since 1984.
It seems his method involves a number of true and false questions that professor Lichtman calls his “Keys to the White House.”
And according to professor Lichtman’s results, Donald Trump is slated to be the winner.
From the Washington Post here are the 13 keys:
- Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
According to professor Lichtman’s results, Donald Trump is slated to be the winner.
Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory. Remember, six keys and you’re out, and right now the Democrats are out — for sure — five keys.
Key 1 is the party mandate — how well they did in the midterms. They got crushed.
Key number 3 is, the sitting president is not running.
Key number 7, no major policy change in Obama’s second term like the Affordable Care Act.
Key number 11, no major smashing foreign policy success.
And Key number 12, Hillary Clinton is not a Franklin Roosevelt.
One more key and the Democrats are down, and we have the Gary Johnson Key. One of my keys would be that the party in power gets a “false” if a third-party candidate is anticipated to get 5 percent of the vote or more. In his highest polling, Gary Johnson is at about 12 to 14 percent. My rule is that you cut it in half. That would mean that he gets six to seven, and that would be the sixth and final key against the Democrats.
If one accepts professor Lichtman’s premises then a Trump presidency is the likely outcome, but this election is anything but usual and Trump isn’t a typical Republican candidate so all efforts at predicting the outcome could be futile. We’ll just have to take a wait and see attitude.
Source: The Washington Post