“This is the most dramatic evidence yet that Hillary’s convention bounce really is gone.”
Everyone who’s been paying attention knows that national polls give a sense of the changing mood, but it’s the swing state polls that are going to determine the election. Because of that, Trump has reason to be nervous, because he has been trailing in many of them. His path to actual numerical victory in the electoral college fairly slim unless something seismic happens to wreck the race for Hillary. That still stands as a distinct possibility, but in the meantime, he needs to show he can lead in the purple states.
Many will recall that an early August survey of Wisconsin showed Trump behind a daunting 15 points. However, two new Wisconsin polls reveal a dramatic change.
One from Marquette shows Hillary’s lead shrinking: she gets 41 percent to Trump’s 38. The other, by Monmouth, also gives Hillary an underwhelming lead: 43 to 38.
At HotAir, AllahPundit analyzes the numbers:
Hillary’s lost six points off her overall share of the vote and eight points off her favorable rating in just three weeks. Presumably that’s her post-convention balloon deflating, although maybe some of the Clinton Foundation coverage this month has begun to bite. Trump’s favorable rating is stable but he’s up four points from his share of the vote a few weeks ago while Johnson and Stein are flat. It seems like some Republicans who briefly tilted Hillary after the convention have tilted back to their own party, perhaps helped along by steady (if reluctant) support for Trump from fellow Wisconsinites Reince Priebus, Paul Ryan, and Scott Walker.
He points out that while a major improvement, these numbers aren’t exactly worth cheering about. Now Trump has to perform spectacularly during the debates to beat Hillary’s hold on the lead, however tenuous it may be.