The polls are all over the place. Many people are wondering if they should be trusted at all or whether they have become just another propaganda tool for a mainstream media desperate to stop Donald Trump.
While that fear is probably unfounded, after all pollsters make their living and their reputations on accuracy, there are a number of methodological and practical concerns that have led to an overall decline in the credibility of polling that every informed voter should understand.
In the era of cell phones and the internet, how do you get an accurate sample of the voting public? In an environment where the media demonizes Donald Trump, how many Trump supporters refuse to acknowledge their preference out of fear or shame? How do you measure a “likely voter” when an iconoclast like Trump appears poised to turn out millions of unlikely voters?
In 2012, conservatives were convinced that the polls were under-counting Mitt Romney’s support. There was even a website called unskewed polls that claimed to re-adjust pollster’s models and showed Romney actually winning. We all know how that turned out.
All of which is to say that all polls should be taken for what they are, someone or some organization’s best effort to take an accurate snapshot of the presidential race at that moment in time. Some of these efforts will be more successful than others. Witness the insanely wrong Saint Leo University poll in Florida that had Trump down 14 points just yesterday. Oh, what a difference a day makes!
Conservative Tribune has the story…
Just a day after a poll published by Saint Leo University showed Democrat presidential candidate Hillary Clinton leading GOP candidate Donald Trump by 14 points in Florida, another poll showed something vastly different.
Published Wednesday by Florida Atlantic University, this poll had Trump leading Clinton by two points, 43 to 41, which was within the 2.7 percent margin of error.
The news only gets worse for Clinton…
Clinton also lost to Trump on favorability and loyalty. Specifically, Clinton earned an unfavorable rating of 58 percent and loyalty score (those who plan to vote for her but also view her favorably) of 90 percent, whereas Trump’s respective numbers were 56 and 94 percent.
Could it be any worse for Hillary? Why yes, yes it can…
The billionaire candidate also crushed Clinton with independents, 47 to 26 percent, and whites, 49 to 33 percent.
Additionally Trump has pulled his numbers with Florida Hispanics up to the magic 40% as well as a high water 20% with blacks, peeling off all of the minority votes he will need to capture this key swing state.
Source: Conservative Tribune