Please wait until the roller coaster has come to a complete stop before exiting.
This roller coaster election is unlikely to be resolved until the night of November 8th, much to Hillary Clinton’s dismay. The media should also be hanging their heads in shame at the numbers they have been touting in October.
One thing we do know: every poll wants to be right in the end, so as much as they want to lead people to believe a race is already in the bag for their darling candidate, they can’t hide the facts when push comes to shove. The final result must be compared with their polls. For ABC’s tracking poll, we’re seeing a massive—and frankly, hard to believe—swing in one direction.
From ABC News:
From a 50-38 percent Clinton lead over Donald Trump in the tracking poll’s first four days, Oct. 20-23, it’s a 47-45 percent contest in the latest results. The movement has been in Trump’s favor, +7, while the -3 in Clinton’s support is not significant, given the sample size.
First, can you imagine what happens if this swing continues in the wake of the FBI scandal and possibly fatal Wikileaks releases over the final 10 days of the campaign? It is worth noting that both candidates do seem to have a ceiling and a floor, and early voting has begun, but there is no way this trend reverses in the coming week.
Here’s ABC’s insights on what has been changing in their poll:
Changes in the poll’s latest four nights compared with the previous four are not mainly about people shifting in their candidate preference, but about changes in who’s intending to vote.
As Trump’s controversies last week and the week before move further into the rearview mirror, Republicans are expressing greater likelihood to participate: Eighty-one percent of registered Republicans now are likely voters, up from 75 percent a week ago.
Loosely affiliated or reluctant Clinton supporters look less likely to vote, perhaps given their sense she can win without them — a supposition that looks less reliable today.
Trump, meanwhile, has gone from a 6-point deficit to a 16-point advantage among independents, with more Republican-leaners in their ranks.
That said, the dynamics can continue to shift. While preferences in recent past elections have been stable, there are previous examples of wild rides. Most notable is 1992, when, among many gyrations, Bill Clinton went from an 11-point lead to a 3-point gap in six days late in the race — a shift much like his wife is experiencing in her contest, 24 years later.
Whether they are right on what to infer from the polls or not, it is encouraging to Donald Trump and his supporters that Republicans seem to be getting back on the band wagon in the nick of time, while independents are questioning whether Hillary Clinton is the right person for the job. The Clinton parallel of the shift is curious: could not the same “media forces” have been in play, except they hav obviously been more brazen about their lies this time around?
Americans will have to wait and see what effect this FBI investigation has in the coming days, as this daily tracking poll will not be able to fully capture its fallout for at least a few more days. The polls may have been yanking our chain over these past few months, but when the rubber meets the road, they will want their numbers to be accurate in the final days and hours, so stay tuned for what is certainly going to be a wild ride.
Source: ABC News