For years statisticians have been using models to make predictions about future events. Some of these models have proven highly accurate, such as predictive betting, others have been hilariously off the mark…like global warming models.
But there is one model that is the gold standard for all statistical predictions. It has correctly identified the winner of the last seven presidential contests including Barack Obama’s surprise win over Mitt Romney and George W. Bush’s razor thin victory over Al Gore.
The Washington Examiner has the details on what it has predicted this time…
Republican Donald Trump should win the presidency by a slim margin according to a model that has accurately predicted the popular vote since 1988.
Using several standards to make his prediction, Alan Abramowitz’s “Time for Change” model done for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics “Crystal Ball” shows Trump winning 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent for Hillary Clinton.
He added that the model shows a 66 percent chance of a Trump victory.
“Based on a predicted vote share of 48.6 percent for the incumbent party, these results indicate that Trump should be a clear but not overwhelming favorite to defeat Clinton: There should be about a 66 percent chance of a Republican victory,” Abramowitz added.
The essence of effective modeling is to account for as many variables as possible, so that they can be included in the calculation. When you have a relatively simple calculation, there are few variables and the prediction tends to be more accurate. When the model must account for dizzyingly complex system such as the weather over time, there are so many known and unknown variables that the veracity of the model becomes more and more dubious.
Abramowitz warns that Trump is unlike any candidate that he has ever analyzed, so there may be unknown variables that have never been contemplated by his model. This is his way of bet hedging, saying that he has calculated the known variables, but if he’s wrong its Trump’s fault, not his. Typical.
Source: Washington Examiner