Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have been neck and neck in some recent polls while other national polls have continued to show a comfortable lead for Hillary.
But this may be the day the media narrative—with their skewed numbers—begins to break down.
Rasmussen Reports, which has often been more favorable toward conservatives (and more accurate), has shown a similar trend to some of the major pollsters who persistently show Hillary ahead. Their numbers are turning heads this morning:
Hillary Clinton’s post-convention lead has disappeared, putting her behind Donald Trump for the first time nationally since mid-July.
The latest weekly Rasmussen Reports White House Watch shows Trump with 40% support to Clinton’s 39% among Likely U.S. Voters, after Clinton led 42% to 38% a week ago. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson now earns seven percent (7%) of the vote, down from nine percent (9%) the previous two weeks, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein picks up three percent (3%) support.
Trump’s lead is significant since it is showing the sea change that many have been observing but to this point had failed to quantify. But what is more important is where Clinton’s numbers have been trending over the last few weeks:
Clinton’s support has been trending down from a high of 44% in early August just after the Democratic National Convention. This is her lowest level of support since mid-July.
Clinton has 73% of the Democratic vote, down from 79% in the previous survey. Trump attracts 15% of Democrats, while 12% of Republicans prefer Clinton. The GOP nominee continues to hold a small lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party, this week leading 36% to 28%.
Trump clearly has a distinct advantage on Hillary. Her enthusiasm is down now that the scandals are piling up with promises of more document dumps over the next 60 days. And Trump seems to be holding another wild card:
Some have suggested that Trump has hidden support among voters who are unwilling to say publicly where they stand because they’re fearful of criticism. We won’t know for sure until Election Day, but Republicans are clearly more reluctant than Democrats this year to say how they are going to vote.
This is a major X factor in the race. We are witnessing the first presidential election after the IRS targeted conservatives and caused a major scandal. So while there are definitely no (living) Hillary supporters quietly waiting in the wings, Trump may have an entire block of voters not yet accounted for. While the race according to Rasmussen is statistically even, the trend is strongly towards Donald, and we will have to see how his bold immigration speech will move the numbers over the coming week.