There are two delegate counts. One that tracks the delegates based on the results of primaries and caucuses and one which also figures in the results from conventions as well as changes due to rules, undeclared delegates expressing a preference, etc.
The first count has been well publicized and puts Donald Trump up by about 200 depending on which source you use, but it is something like Trump 758, Cruz 544, Kasich 144, Rubio 141, Unpledged 75.
However, when you figure the results from the various activities in each state, such as 10 unpledged Louisiana delegates and 18 unpledged North Dakota delegates all declaring for Cruz, something interesting happens, as reported by Red State…
Trump currently has 763 Bound Delegates and 2 Unbound Delegates for a total of 765.
Ted Cruz currently has 542 and 154 unbound delegates for a total of 696.
Real Numbers: Cruz 696 Delegates to Trumps 765 Delegates.
In other words, Cruz is still within striking distance of Trump on the first ballot and if it goes to a second ballot, forget about it, Cruz will score over 1300 votes on a second ballot and secure the nomination!
As per Red State…
Current + Projected Delegate Count in a Contested Convention is Cruz 772 Delegates to Trump 267 Delegates. Kasich would have approximately 85 Delegates guaranteed.
When you game that out, the 500 guaranteed second ballot delegate lead works out to Ted Cruz being almost mathematically certain to win the nomination.
Check out the full report and analysis HERE